A proposed agreement granting the United States access to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals and other natural resources is viewed as a way to help shield Ukraine from Russian aggression, according to a social media post shared by President Donald Trump on March 2. The post featured an excerpt from a longer analysis by Michael McCune, an Arizona-based DJ and karate instructor known for his political commentary on Facebook.

The excerpt from McCune’s analysis claims, “Trump is actually protecting Ukraine without dragging the U.S. into war.” It goes on to say, “By negotiating a mineral deal, Trump ensures that Americans will be involved in Ukraine’s mining industry. This prevents Russia from launching an invasion, because attacking Ukraine would endanger American lives—something that would force the U.S. to respond.”

For several weeks, Trump has been discussing a potential deal with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in which the U.S. would share in the profits from Ukraine’s future natural resource development. Trump has framed this deal as a way for the U.S. to recoup some of the costs of supporting Ukraine in the ongoing war, while also ensuring future compensation for U.S. aid. However, Zelenskyy has expressed hesitation in finalizing an agreement without firm U.S. security guarantees.

Zelenskyy was initially expected to sign an economic partnership agreement with the U.S. during his visit to the White House on February 28. However, that meeting fell through as Zelenskyy pushed for stronger security guarantees and had disagreements with Trump and Vice President JD Vance over the viability of diplomacy and Ukraine’s negotiating position.

During this tense exchange at the White House, Trump warned that Zelenskyy was risking millions of lives and would either need to reach a deal or risk losing U.S. support altogether. The social media post Trump shared on March 2 praised his approach to the negotiations.

“In the end, Zelenskyy will have no choice but to concede, because without U.S. support, Ukraine cannot win a prolonged war against Russia. And once U.S. companies have mining operations in Ukraine, Putin will be unable to attack without triggering massive international consequences,” the post states. “Don’t underestimate Donald Trump. In this game of chess, he’s 10 moves ahead of everyone,” concludes the excerpt from McCune’s analysis that Trump quoted.

While the analysis shared by Trump suggests that U.S. interests in Ukraine could act as a tripwire, triggering a retaliatory U.S. response if Russia attacks, it remains uncertain whether Ukraine will view this as a sufficient security guarantee without antagonizing Moscow.

Zelenskyy has previously proposed Ukrainian membership in NATO as a potential security guarantee in negotiations with Russia. NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense provision obligates member countries to assist any ally under attack, but Russian President Vladimir Putin has vehemently opposed Ukraine joining NATO.

Last week, Trump stated that Zelenskyy would need to make concessions to achieve peace with Russia, including abandoning Ukraine’s NATO aspirations. Other European nations have proposed sending peacekeeping troops to Ukraine to help enforce a potential ceasefire between Kyiv and Moscow. However, Russia has strongly opposed any NATO member deployments to Ukraine, even outside of NATO's mutual defense framework.

Before the collapse of his meeting with Zelenskyy, Trump had expressed willingness to send additional arms to Ukraine but hoped military assistance wouldn't be necessary if a peace agreement could be reached.

On March 1, Zelenskyy expressed that he was still open to signing a joint U.S.-Ukraine economic development deal, viewing it as a “first step toward security guarantees.” However, the Trump administration has paused talks on the deal for now.

In an interview on CBS’s Face the Nation on March 2, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that an economic deal with Ukraine would be meaningless without a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia. “I think we have to see if President Zelenskyy wants to proceed,” Bessent said. “What’s the use in having an economic agreement that’s going to be rendered moot if he wants the fighting to continue?”